Live Presidential Forecast

Donald J. Trump has won the presidency. Below, our estimates of three key indicators:

The projections for each state are based on the votes reported so far and how those places have voted in previous elections.

We’re showing the closest states by default. Show all states

Here’s how our forecasts have changed:

The estimates below include an estimate of uncertainty. We expect the uncertainty around these estimates to narrow, especially after races are called.

Once a state has counted all its results, our estimated margin and the reported margin will match. As a rule, when our estimated margin is steady, our forecast is more trustworthy.

The chart below shows the most likely electoral vote outcomes. When every state has been called, this chart will show just one: the total electoral votes of the winner.